Holden first to go under...

[btm]

Holden will be the first Australian automaker to go under, says one expert


http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25331642-5014099,00.html


AUSTRALIA'S car industry will not survive the economic recession, and Holden will probably be the first to go, an industry expert says.

Editor of the car buyers Dog & Lemon Guide, Clive Matthew-Wilson, said the car manufacturer is poised to shut down for good because it can no longer compete in the global market.

Holden signalled the beginning of the end when it recently halved production at its South Australian plant, he said.

In early April the company announced that from May 4 it will reduce production at its Adelaide plant from about 600 vehicles a day to 310, citing reduced demand in domestic and export markets.

"Australia's car factories are losing money on every vehicle they make," Mr Matthew-Wilson said in a statement.

"No amount of incentives from the state and federal governments can solve this basic problem.

"It's not a matter of whether they close down, but when they close down."

He said Holden will be the first to go, followed by Ford and then Toyota.

"People falsely believe that Ford is doing okay. That's not true," he said.

"American Ford's sales are down 43 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

"Ford is losing billions just like GM; it's just that Ford arranged private sector finance before the recession, so it's not quite so obvious how serious things are."

Amid the financial turmoil, the big three US car makers - Ford, Chrysler and Holden owner General Motors - have asked the US government for a loan guarantee of $US25 billion ($37.51 billion).

Earlier this year Toyota, the world's No.1 car maker and Australian market leader, accepted a $35 million federal government grant to build a hybrid version of its four-cylinder Camry sedan in Melbourne from 2010.

But Mr Matthew-Wilson said the money is a waste.

"Globally, there's a glut of new cars at bargain prices, yet Australia, which produces a small number of high cost cars, is trying to compete with countries like China, which produces ten million cars a year and pays its car workers as little as one dollar per hour.

"The Australian government can throw $6 billion or $600 billion at these car plants, but they still won't be economically feasible," he said.

"Australia's car plants are losing money faster than a drunk at a casino and there's no feasible way of turning this around.

"The Australian car industry can re-focus on small cars, green cars, blue cars or red cars. None of this will make the slightest difference."

Mr Matthew-Wilson believes the government money would have been better spent by giving it to the affected car workers.

[imay]

A no-brainer really. Understand and agree with everything there . . . unfortunately.

I believe the Australian motor industry has been in trouble now for a long, long time and they keep hiding behind the Australian motoring public's belief they need/want big cars. Why? No one else in the world wants them (except the Yanks, of course!).

Sad, sad days (again) for Australian manufacturing.

[dieselhead]

Unfortunately this guy is only stating the obvious. The industry was on its knees for years, this recession being nothing than a catalyst for sudden death...

There's not a chance in the current global economy for a viable car industry in a country with less than 1 million units p.a. like ours.

[MatsHolden]

lol That guy is a goose. He always bashes Australian manufacturers... well he is a New Zealander after all. That "Dog and Lemon Guide" of his is a load of crap too. Yes things aren't rosey, blind freddy could see that. But this guy just doesn't seem to like Australia.

[dieselhead]

Oh, I see, so that's the guy that is getting Holden, local Ford and Toyota Oz bankrupt! Somebody, quick, call the Police and get the bastard arrested!!! :)

[GreyRex]

I think there's a bit of sensationalism there

... Kick 'em when they're down

[MatsHolden]

Oh, I see, so that's the guy that is getting Holden, local Ford and Toyota Oz bankrupt! Somebody, quick, call the Police and get the bastard arrested!!! :)

What are you on about? I was just pointing out that that bloke will take any opportunity to have a crack at the Australian motoring industry.

[dieselhead]

I was just kidding, obviously. I remember that media was blamed for Mitsubishi's fate, not their bland cars. Here we go again...

Think about it people, Opel with their currently brilliant line of models-Corsa, Astra, Insignia-are at risk of going under, despite having a market several times larger that Holden.

[Wraith]

Hmmm, will be interesting if it does happen...sad too :(

[gman]

I would say Holden are in a much better position than Ford locally in Oz.

Holden exports a large number of cars to foreign markets and uses a lot of generic GM components. The Commodore isn't a "Big" car per say, its just bigger than what the Japanese are selling/manufacturing. If they can keep offshore sales and hold on to a local demand, they might be OK. There is even talk of a sale to another car company.

What happened to Mitsubishi in Oz is a very different story. They had a bad product lineup, so it went under.

So is what Toyota has in Oz. Australia can and is used as a testing ground for parts (Japan, UK and Oz are some of the few right hand drive nations left) and feeling out what non-Japanese think of new designs. These are then incorporated into other regions. It happens in all sort of things. As Australia is one of the few non-Asian market in the region, Asian producers use it to gauge response before they go into full production in Europe or North America. Its cheap and easy to ship/build things here on a right hand drive Japanese platform (using local industry) and Australia has a large enough population and diversity (against somewhere like NZ which has no local industry to take advantage of and small population) to make it cost effective or limit the loss on a product, change etc.

Its not looking great for Australian car makers I agree, but it isn't dead yet. What might and is happening is a homogenisation for the model line up to better reflect the overseas markets.

Ford locally uses a lot of bespoke Australia specific parts. Add to that the fact to 90% of Ford's US revenue comes from the US SUV line up (which is now 100% in the US law makers sights) and Ford is looking less like the rosey picture some are painting. SUV sales are going to fall, they are talking about removing the tax break and government incentives for SUV's and making them comply with fuel mileage and emission requirements for passenger vehicles not commercial vehicles like they do now. Ever wondered why US engien tech is 10 to 15 years behind Japan and the Euro zone??? Government tax breaks for SUV's...

This is why the F150 is by far Ford's No:1 US & worldwide seller.

Euro Ford models like the Focus and Mondeo do OK in Europe, but the have to compete with the like of the BWM 135i and 3 series, Merc's C Class, Audi's A3 and A4 models and VW Golf's and Passatt's. And they are not always that much cheaper over there.

Ford has bigger issues than GM. Ford was lucky to get its private funding in place before this recession hot home.

GM is selling Opel not because it doesn't make money (you just need to check the actual accounts. GM uses Opel as a tax rightoff for Euro zone company tax and so it "appears" as a loss leader), but because it can and does. GM needs the cash and knows that if the right seller comes up they can get a quick cash infusion.

Its the same with Saab. Quick sale for cash as they know the Swedish govt won't let it go down, Fuji Heavy Industries (Subaru) have also expressed an interest in buying Saab as they already share technology, platforms etc.

Renault has Nissan, there are companies out there with the cash waiting for the bottom of the market. Overall. Holden and Opel don't/doesn't look that bad. I know that if I had the cash and could get the tech right for the current/futures production run, Opel would be a good starting point onc eit is rid of the GM weight around its neck.

[hally83]

I was talking to a forman today at Holden and he was telling me that holden most likely wont be getting in the new astra (any astra model) as it is costing too much to buy from overseas. What do u guys think?

[poita]

they will keep gettin daewoos until they can be built here on the new cruze platform

[gman]

Depends on the other alternatives from places like Korea.

I would say Oz would likely get the next Astra given the good sales of the standard models and the lack of anything to replace it.

Small cars car the main profit leaders and the Astra has a good brand image.

That being said, with the way things are now, nothings 100%, but IMHO, no Oz will get the next Astra, even if its Korean built and not from Europe (mainly Belgium I think for the Astra's...)

[BEK-46P]

That's not the best news, eh?

So what's going to happen with our warranties?

[gman]

Laws in the UK and Oz mean they have to support them for extended periods of up to 10 years...

Holden will not disappear...Warranties should be no issue really...If they go, something will be sorted out.....

[Shay]

Laws in the UK and Oz mean they have to support them for extended periods of up to 10 years...

Holden will not disappear...Warranties should be no issue really...If they go, something will be sorted out.....

exactly ;)
servicing and parts need to be kept running/producing for ten years from last build date.
even if they go down they will have to keep service centres open

[USC]

Laws in the UK and Oz mean they have to support them for extended periods of up to 10 years...

Holden will not disappear...Warranties should be no issue really...If they go, something will be sorted out.....

+1 ...Like Daihatsu did.

[Hoya]

off to trade my sriT for a mk5 golf r32 that i can get for $50990-trade at denlo at either the airport or parra.

hahahahah :p

[Shay]

off to trade my sriT for a mk5 golf r32 that i can get for $50990-trade at denlo at either the airport or parra.

hahahahah :p

you should if you can, those things are awesome,
so quick think theyve got 7 gears or somethin, and so flat through corners.

but thats not what this threads about

[topgear]

Am I the only one here evil enough to feel somewhat happy that there may not be a new Astra available in Oz? Retains the resale value of my car and the interest never dies because it will always be the current model Astra :D (I feel so guilty saying that)

That said I hope Holden stays open, as does Opel... Can't imagine Australia without Holden or Ford tbh. DAMN YOU FINANCIAL CRISIS!

[Shay]

Am I the only one here evil enough to feel somewhat happy that there may not be a new Astra available in Oz? Retains the resale value of my car and the interest never dies because it will always be the current model Astra :D (I feel so guilty saying that)

That said I hope Holden stays open, as does Opel... Can't imagine Australia without Holden or Ford tbh. DAMN YOU FINANCIAL CRISIS!

resale wont get any better, will only be seen as current model as long as there still selling them.

i know its a little different but look at the HSV's as a calibra. They dont make them anymore, they are not considered current, resale isnt high, and very few remember them.

[ChrisMaz]

If Holden does fold... How much is it going to depreciate my car?

People would just instantly assume that servicing will be either impossible or expensive...
:confused:

[Shay]

If Holden does fold... How much is it going to depreciate my car?

People would just instantly assume that servicing will be either impossible or expensive...
:confused:

IF Holden does go down, its not definate remember, the amount of media exposure it will get will be enormous, and it would be made very clear that servicing and parts will be readily available for 10 years. which is longer than most people plan to hold onto there cars for anyway.

[topgear]

Yeah my point exactly, for the 3 or so years I intend to keep my car, not having a new model come out in that time is a good thing for resale values...

[GreyRex]

Yeah my point exactly, for the 3 or so years I intend to keep my car, not having a new model come out in that time is a good thing for resale values...

Have you checked out ours used?

They don't really hold their value anyway

[GreyRex]

This genuinely sincere statement is far more profound than we have come to expect from a media release, which is why we have decided to reproduce it here verbatim.
Read more… (http://www.caradvice.com.au/28762/holden-responds-to-industry-collapse-speculation/)


STATEMENT IN RESPONSE TO AUTO INDUSTRY SPECULATION
What gives one person the right to call ‘time’ on an entire industry with more than 60,000 jobs at stake? What data is he basing his views on when happily sounding the death knell for Australian car makers and employees?
We’ve never had a request from this individual to speak with our executives, to discuss our company business plans or review the business case for our new fuel efficient 4 cylinder small car.
This is shameless self-promotion at the expense of our industry, our organisation and our employees.
For the record, Holden has had the best selling car in the country for 13 consecutive years and we’re not going anywhere. We’re in there fighting in a pretty tough global environment and we won’t be discouraged by bystanders.

[rjastra]

Yeah my point exactly, for the 3 or so years I intend to keep my car, not having a new model come out in that time is a good thing for resale values...


You, my friend, have very little idea of how the car market works. If you were interested in the retained value of the car you bought you wouldn't have bought an Astra SRiT in the first place.

[Shaun]

I dont believe it for a second. Do you really think The Australian Govenment is going to stand by and watch Holden and for that matter Ford And Toyota Shrivel up and fold. I dont believe thats going to happen. They will More then likely do what the US govenment is doing and inject cash flow into the companys again. Ecconomist are saying Australia isnt in the dirty " R " Word yet.


And in the 90's Australia went through worst times then we are expriencing right now. Interest rates were at record highs and this time they are are record lows. My prodiction is the govenement is doing things to stimulate the ecconomy unlike in the 90's.

Holden is outlaying money on tooling a factory to produce small cars locally. That is a sure indication as a manfacturer they are investing in Australia not going to fold like the ariticle says.

[rjastra]

Holden is outlaying money on tooling a factory to produce small cars locally. That is a sure indication as a manfacturer they are investing in Australia not going to fold like the ariticle says.

I tend to believe you on this. Holden (and Ford) will reshape their local operations to have a multi-platform manufacturing base. They can then modify their outputs to match the market better.

Had a look in the US sites about Pontiac G8 sales. They are up month on month.

[USC]

Or they might replace the commodore with a daewoo.:p

[USC]

you should if you can, those things are awesome,
so quick think theyve got 7 gears or somethin, and so flat through corners.

but thats not what this threads about

yet, a G3 WRX is still faster:p

[imay]

IF Holden (or Ford, or Toyota, or . . .) should go down the drain, the last thing we should be worrying about is the depreciation of our precious cars, or whether the manufacturers (that won't be here anymore, remember!) will still have to honor service/warranty/parts, etc.

IF our country's auto manufacturing business/es go down the drain they will take a HUGE chunk of our country's employment with them. This will not (actually IS NOT) only going to affect that particular industry, but all the other associated industries even down to the corner deli/milk bar that sells the odd bottle of Coke and packet of Winny Blues to the workers as they go to and from work.

IF that, god forbid, should happen, it will be a very sad, sad day for Australia. Whether you are a Holden or Ford fan, this country will be well and truely stuffed, which is, no doubt, why the Government is throwing money at them to try to keep them afloat.

Having said all that with sincerity and genuine concern for all parties (me, as a SA resident that could/would be indirectly affected, included!) . . . I can't honestly imagine that my next car will be a Korean hand-me-down, even if it is assembled here in my own State.

[Nurb608]

Yeah my point exactly, for the 3 or so years I intend to keep my car, not having a new model come out in that time is a good thing for resale values...

Didn't work for the veccy c.

[tomtom]

That's not the best news, eh?

So what's going to happen with our warranties?

We will lose it and happily mod away. :D

[topgear]

Or they might replace the commodore with a daewoo.:p
Oh god no :p

[poita]

didnt know which of the many "holden/gm/opel are going under/being bought out by arabs" threads to add this too.
so this one will do.

Maybe GM will survive on it's own, and Chrysler is going to Fiat.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=804464


The Obama administration will make about $500 million available to Chrysler LLC through the end of this month as it seeks to reach an alliance with Fiat, and up to $5 billion through May to help General Motors Corp restructure outside of bankruptcy, an independent oversight report on the Treasury Department's corporate rescue fund said on Tuesday