What happens to our cars in 10 years?

[Huhness]

I know I read that petrol is expected to be $8L in 10 years but its going to be around the $3L in 2 years! I've seen alot of people talking about buying new cars obviously petrol powered and think about what the car will be worth in probably 2 years time when petrol is about $3L?? What will happen to the billions of cars now on the road??

Who is going to upgrade in 2010 when the flood of petrol alternatives come rushing in?? I know i am going to probably be selling my car next year.. Petrol is probably going to be $2L by Christmas.. :(

[Wraith]

You'll find that in the next decade, there will be a big shift towards alternative power sources, it's always been curtailed/stalled in the past, but it's on the move in a serious way recently !

So expect alot more on the hydrogen cell/electric powered front etc. for future automotive vehicles.

As for petrol powered cars, I believe the demand for hi power high fuel burn vehicles will die down considerably in 10 + years from now, manufacturers are already making them more and more efficient, but they will be eventually be overrun with an alternative, it's just a matter of time.

This will most likely cause prices to drop ?? as there will be less demand for them or people will buy them to enjoy only for the occaisional drives as petrol prices will be too high to run as an everyday vehicle ?? who knows how exactly it will pan out ??

Maybe for the 1st time, anyone will be able to buy a car like a Ferrari Enzo, because petrol cars have been phased out of society so they're worthless...can't imagine such a change :eek:

[EL BURITO]

I want a bloody EV1 bring them back GM you ****ers

Or a Tesla, seeing as they are the only company that seems to have there head screwed on properly when it comes to the alternatives and being able to charge the car via solar system too.

Then there is Toyota and there 2/3s of a effort least there trying.

But bring back the vehicles that Ford, GM, Toyota had running around in LA 4 years ago

[Vectracious]

I hope they develop some sort of conversion kit for alternative fuel sources - what the hell are we going to do with the millions of cars (in 1997 they estimated there were 600 million cars in the entire world) that can't be used anymore....

[InsaneAsylum]

now if only urine was flammable....

[Wraith]

I hope they develop some sort of conversion kit for alternative fuel sources - what the hell are we going to do with the millions of cars (in 1997 they estimated there were 600 million cars in the entire world) that can't be used anymore....

Scrap metal/recycling will have a 'field decade' :D

[glider]

I hope they develop some sort of conversion kit for alternative fuel sources - what the hell are we going to do with the millions of cars (in 1997 they estimated there were 600 million cars in the entire world) that can't be used anymore....

has anyone seen that 'convert your car to hydrogen' crap?

is there any truth behind any of these claims or all just a hoax?

[Wraith]

has anyone seen that 'convert your car to hydrogen' crap?

is there any truth behind any of these claims or all just a hoax?

Not sure which hydrogen power system your referring to ??

But the 'hydrogen cell' proposed future power source for automotive vehicles is for the production of electricity to power electric drivetrain cars, not internal combustion !

'Basically' speaking, it works by special catalysts separating the molecules of the high pressure stored liquid state hydrogen into its separate hydrogen and oxygen atoms, thereby releasing charged electrons in the process, these electrons provide the high electrical charge needed or used to run the electric motors and/or charge batteries, but I think batteries will be excluded from the picture in the end as they add weight, cost, volume and there are obvious issues with disposal.

If your talking about using hydrogen for internal combustion, that's a different thing - personally I don't think they'll end up with this method for future vehicles.

[MatsHolden]

Not sure which hydrogen power system your referring to ??

But the 'hydrogen cell' proposed future power source for automotive vehicles is for the production of electricity to power electric drivetrain cars, not internal combustion !

.

There is the Hydrogen7 concept by BMW that uses liquid hydrogen
in a traditional internal combustion engine. Pretty cool stuff.

[gman]

Running Hydrogen in a normal reciprocating engine has serious problems. Those "convert your car to hydrogen" kits are basically CRAP!!! they usually involve injecting small amounts of hydrogen with petrol into the intake.

The problem with running pure hydrogen is it tends to pre-ignite on the valves, spark plug electrode etc before the power stroke and you get serious back fires. Also it has a low volumetric energy density. Liquid hydrogen requires much more volume than other fuels to store the same amount of energy. Four liters of liquid hydrogen are needed to match the same energy content of one liter of petrol. So you need a lot more to go the same distance.

Rotary engines are actually good for hydrogen, but poor on economy....

[gman]

There is the Hydrogen7 concept by BMW that uses liquid hydrogen
in a traditional internal combustion engine. Pretty cool stuff.

Very cool!!! −252.87°C actually for liquid Hydrogen.. ;)

[xplosv57]

There is the Hydrogen7 concept by BMW that uses liquid hydrogen
in a traditional internal combustion engine. Pretty cool stuff.

Had a quick look at the Hydrogen 7's on their short trip to Aus, very very interesting designs and their performance is incredible!! However the cost to set up hydrogen filling stations is awfully expensive, something goverments won't want to support!!

[astrauturbo]

Mentioning $8 per liter. is expensive, But ur weekly pay will be bigger by
then as well ;). Now i know it wont increase in such a way that it will make
petrol cheap. But 8 bucks petrol prices might seem like paying for $3 petrol prices now. So in those 10 years ppl will still be able to afford petrol. Just wont
use it as much. I can tell you this much. when ever someone asks me to
drive them somewhere i will be charging them :p

[xplosv57]

Not necessarily, petrol prices have gone up quite alot over the last 2 years, as well as food, housing/rent etc etc, but wages haven't increased as substancially!!

Hence why more and more families are struggling with everyday living!!

$8 a litre.............that'll cost me round $500-600 to fill up LOL, me thinks job closer to home before then!!!

[astrauturbo]

that'll cost me round $500-600 to fill up LOL, me thinks job closer to home before then!!!
drive an astra and it will be cheaper ;)

also this is normal. inflation. it will continue this way until it all falls apart or until huge war breaks. This might not be in our life time or it might, But everything falls into place again.

[poita]

I know these are going to get a good work out!
Double pluggers of course!

http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/1284949/2/istockphoto_1284949_aussie_thongs.jpg


But seriously, will future fuels really be that much cheaper than fuel?
The amount of $$ the government will want to make out of them will be the same, I relaly don't think things will change price wish between the different fuels that much at all

[glider]

drive an astra and it will be cheaper ;)

also this is normal. inflation. it will continue this way until it all falls apart or until huge war breaks. This might not be in our life time or it might, But everything falls into place again.

assuming we don't all get killed by that 2012 comet (or similar) ;)

[immenotu]

...But seriously, will future fuels really be that much cheaper than fuel?
The amount of $$ the government will want to make out of them will be the same, I relaly don't think things will change price wish between the different fuels that much at all

That's true for cars that use fuel, but if electric cars become viable you would be able to charge them at home and wouldnt need any 'fuel' as such. On top of that, if you have solar power at home then running your car (and your house) would be free. Of course this is all presuming they can make a decent electric car.

[EL BURITO]

That's true for cars that use fuel, but if electric cars become viable you would be able to charge them at home and wouldnt need any 'fuel' as such. On top of that, if you have solar power at home then running your car (and your house) would be free. Of course this is all presuming they can make a decent electric car.
www.teslamotors.com/

I will take out the loan once i finish uni if it means I can get one

[glider]

thats a very cool car... i wonder how it handles

for $109k usd it wont be cheap here in aus

[immenotu]

That is a pretty sweet car. Seems as though the technology is definitely viable then!


thats a very cool car... i wonder how it handles...

Seeing as they had lotus help with some of the design (and im guessing engineering) there is a good chance that it handles really well.

[HappySlapper82]

Unfortunately, now might be the only time you could sell your car and get what its worth. Once petrol goes $2L+ petrol powered cars will lose value rather quickly I would think. NO way will our wages increase quick enough to cover that... :(

[kilcoy]

Has anyone concidered ethanol...Australia is a major sugar cane producer and lets support our cane farmers. As well as the bi-product of ethanol production is a excellent food source for cattle when grains are used for the production. Actually there is more nutrients available in it that that of normal grains.

[glider]

Has anyone concidered ethanol...Australia is a major sugar cane producer and lets support our cane farmers. As well as the bi-product of ethanol production is a excellent food source for cattle when grains are used for the production. Actually there is more nutrients available in it that that of normal grains.

problem is with that most if not all cars can only run on an 10% ethanol blend (90% gasoline) which is currently sold as E10 by most petrol stations, i think its to do with the EFI not being able to handle the air/fuel ratio that comes with adding more ethanol

[auzvectra]

the only current problem with electric cars is the power storage, batteries just havent been developed enough to be small enough or light enough.

i think the opels can run upto 15% ethanol (correct me if it is 10%).

although i think the most common product they use for ethanol is corn no sugar cane, and there is a lot needed to make the ethanol, not to mention the impact of world food supplies (as some1 mentioned on here a while ago).


it will onlt be a matter of time until some sort of motor is designed that will solve most of the issue, and i dont think our cars will become worthless, there will always be some sort of fuel to run in them maybe a high mix of ethanol, gas, or natural gas. or converting them to a similar fuel type, maybe nitrogen ect...
there is so many alterntive forms ot propulsion it's not funny, most of them people dont know about, as there isnt really enough call for them, untill fuel gets to a very low supply level, then they will start to be seen more.

[Vectracious]

problem is with that most if not all cars can only run on an 10% ethanol blend (90% gasoline) which is currently sold as E10 by most petrol stations, i think its to do with the EFI not being able to handle the air/fuel ratio that comes with adding more ethanol

I thought it was more to do with Ethanol being corrosive to some car's fuel systems....:confused:

[auzvectra]

the ethanol eats normal rubber, so all fuel lines, seals ect...
ours have a differnt type of rubber, cant remember what it's called ;).
but it does lean out as lil, and it burns hotter also, which may be why it leans out, i'm not too sure.

[Roquefort]

i was watching some show that had a bunch of aussie uni students/scientists converting rubbish etc in a fuel source, and the GM was backing them.
that in my opinion is the answer for the short them.
only other problem is the emission of CO2, if we can some how capture the CO2 and put it back in the ground, abit like the Loy Yang power station.
we could use the internal combustion engine for perhaps the next 30-50 years, even if they are quite inefficient is making power.

the problem with ethanol is that it come from a food source, great when the price of food is going to way it is, there need to be a natural fuel source that is not a food

[ASTRAY]

the ethanol eats normal rubber, so all fuel lines, seals ect...
ours have a differnt type of rubber, cant remember what it's called ;).
but it does lean out as lil, and it burns hotter also, which may be why it leans out, i'm not too sure.


in south africa i think it is, or perhaps brazil they run on up to 90% ethanol. i dont know if its just 1 brand of car or all etc.
i watched a program on sbs or abc a few months ago which was based on how ethanol production in australia is already driving up the prices of feed for cattle etc. it also mentioned that in some areas of the country feed was becoming hard to purchase because alot of the grain (corn i think) was being allocated to the production of ethanol.
i use only E10 in my astra and was told by a workmate the other day that ethanol was less fuel efficient than even regular unleaded petrol.
is this correct?

[auzvectra]

yeah thats right, it uses more fuel to run the engine, also you have the 2 octane rateings, ron and mon.
ethanol increases ron, but not mon, which make it decieving, cant remember which is which, but 1 gives better power and the other torque from memory, i think ron is power n mon torque, basically the mon end up being low so cruiseing takes more fuel, and accelerating even more.

yeah i think it's 85% ethanol but.

[astrauturbo]

they allready have a town in america testing out hydrogen. They got pumps placed around the town with everyone or nearly everyone driving hydrogen cars. Only problem is they cant drive too far out :p.

[Wraith]

they allready have a town in america testing out hydrogen. They got pumps placed around the town with everyone or nearly everyone driving hydrogen cars. Only problem is they cant drive too far out :p.

The current World testing ground 'proper' for hydrogen based alternative fuel power sources is Iceland...

They've had a complete hydrogen powered transport system in place and service for quite some time, as it's proven feasible for many reasons for that Country to set it all up.

The rest of the World is keeping a close eye on them and their progress and will no doubt make decisions based on the many information/technology outcomes...

[gman]

IMHO electric cars are the most sensible answer...However I will bet that Hydrogen, ethanol, bio diesel or some other form of synthetic hydrocarbon will end up being the new fuel over electricity..

Why? Because electricity does require all the infrastructure that hydrocarbon fuels do (like refilling stations, servicing etc) so there is no value add income stream for the oil/auto companies who will ultimately make the decision on what we end up driving....

As a business model, which is the better long term strategy?? A one time sale of an electric car or a continuing reliance on parts, fuel, servicing etc after initial sale?

[Wraith]

I think your correct gman ^^^

Electric power if fully developed and advanced is probably the best solution...

It will deliver all the power required to move all types of vehicles and speaking of sports cars, they'll be even quicker/faster than current petrol powered ones...

As far as emissions is concerned, it'll be zero with electric power...

As far as sustainability, if they adopt the hydrogen cell technology, the supply is endless...

It is an expensive solution ATM, but if adopted Globally, it will become affordable...and that will be the clintcher as mentioned above, the powers that be on all of this ATM are the ones that will determine what eventuates.

For the nearer term, ie: over the next decade as was the original question, from what I've learned, it seems the next big thing will be diesel/electric hybrids, replacing petrol/electric hybrids and it looks like there are going to be plenty around in the next 10-20 years, as most manufacturers are prototyping their own models ATM.

[Kurmudjeon]

One of the big arguements against electric cars is the amount of time it takes to charge the batteries and that you can't drive the car during charging, therefore also the limited range. The battery packs should be designed to work like cordless drill batteries. Standardise the battery packs on on a few sizes and shapes for various sizes of vehicles and have fuel stations have a bunch of them charged - drive in, swap your pack for one on the rack and away you go. Two minute job. The batteries are owned by the fuel company, like the way domestic LPG is sold. Consumer just pays for the usage.

[ASTRAY]

the stations will need shelves to store their batteries, id say some major stations would need shelves as big as their underground tanks...
unless they make it some sort of drive through shed or factory, with pallets of batteries.

another problem with batteries is pretty much obvious with what happened to lpg, and diesel.
lpg was cheap as, and as soon as the gov announced the rebate on tanks and drivers converted, lpg prices pretty much jumped overnight.
same with diesel when diesel car ownership increased..

but with batteries it might be worse, electricity prices are getting bad as it is, (lemma's electricity privitisation will make it even worse) imagine the price jump of electricity if 100,000 cars needed to be charged overnight, the demand would surely outweigh the supply.
and some major cities (syd in particular) have troubles with the power grid coping with demand in summer and winter as it is, and have shortages etc.

water powered cars will have much the same effect, prices would skyrocket, especially in australia, a country where water is increasingly becoming more and more scarce.

lol, how bout we all drive around with windmills ontop of our cars...
no honestly, i see solar being the only sustainable answer, fair enough we need the materials to build the batteries to hold the solar power etc, but once the cars are built, the fuel is essentially 100% free, and is no drain on any of the worlds resources.
the only problem then is night driving, and arguements on the size of panels, eg, driver A has panels which block sunlight to driver Bs panels when driving.
i could see alot of owners of big 4wds getting told to fk off.

[Kurmudjeon]

Sure you'd need further infrastructure to support the increased demand for electricity. I say bring on the solar power stations too. Makes more sense to charge during the day direct to the battery packs, rather than at night. Each fuel station could have their own solar array (in outer suburbs and the country at least). You probably couldn't have so many stations, but there are too many now.

The only thing is the battery technology is not advanced enough yet. Also needs a battery technology that can be recycled after the battery life is exhausted. A lithium-Ion laptop battery only lasts a few years. If cars ran on them all the lithium and ion (?) would run out fast and be an environmental nightmare.

Maybe back to the bikes and horse & cart? We'd all be healthier.

[ASTRAY]

Sure you'd need further infrastructure to support the increased demand for electricity. I say bring on the solar power stations too. Makes more sense to charge during the day direct to the battery packs, rather than at night. Each fuel station could have their own solar array (in outer suburbs and the country at least). You probably couldn't have so many stations, but there are too many now.

The only thing is the battery technology is not advanced enough yet. Also needs a battery technology that can be recycled after the battery life is exhausted. A lithium-Ion laptop battery only lasts a few years. If cars ran on them all the lithium and ion (?) would run out fast and be an environmental nightmare.

Maybe back to the bikes and horse & cart? We'd all be healthier.

i meant panels on cars.
panels on fuel stations would still mean time to charge your batteries from the stations stored supply. plus youd have to pay for the recharge.
imagine the lines of cars into charging stations. unless they could have some sort of quick charge system.
i wonder how much charge a battery, or an array of batteries the size of a standard fuel tank could hold...
technology advances so fast these days, im sure if they put their minds to it the nerds of the world could come up with some sort of new battery that holds more charge in less space.
if we could discover some sort of process that releases large amounts of energy from small matter,
eg like splitting the atoms in nuclear bombs, but of course not involving nuclear power, just some other form of matter being split...

[HappySlapper82]

Swap'n'go battery packs :D

[ASTRAY]

Swap'n'go battery packs :D
lol, the idea seems quite attractive and time saving, but the stations would still need to charge those batteries, putting pressure on the cost of electricity, including your home power bills.

[HappySlapper82]

lol, the idea seems quite attractive and time saving, but the stations would still need to charge those batteries, putting pressure on the cost of electricity, including your home power bills.

Maybe. Atleast it would keep the petrol stations in business making it a viable option

[Kurmudjeon]

Jeez, didn't you read my first post properly (or didn't I write it clearly enough)?

'The battery packs should be designed to work like cordless drill batteries. Standardise the battery packs on on a few sizes and shapes for various sizes of vehicles and have fuel stations have a bunch of them charged - drive in, swap your pack for one on the rack and away you go. Two minute job. The batteries are owned by the fuel company, like the way domestic LPG is sold.'

So yeah, Swap'n'go. Everyone uses the same size battery pack (maybe multiple units for bigger vehicles). The fuel company owns it and charges it. Anyone could charge it, wherever there is a solar array - at work, supermarket lot. Imagine supermarkets having a 4 cents per kilowatt docket. It'd be so easy. How big is a supermarket roof? How much power could that generate? If you can set up a house now with solar power for $50,000-ish, think how cheap a supermarket roof could be when they're mass manufactured? Couple of hundred thousand? $5, 10, 20 million for a fuel stations worth? Big initial cost, but free fuel except for maintenance and batteries.

Solar panels on the cars would be good away from a fuel station, but would increase the cost of the car. Maybe a combination of both systems - the 'cordless drill' type fuel station, topped up and extended by the cars own panels.

Pity it won't happen in our lifetimes.