Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief

[btm]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/times-up-for-petrol-cars-says-gm-chief/2008/01/14/1200159401944.html

Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief

THE world's biggest car maker, General Motors, believes global oil supply has peaked and a switch to electric cars is inevitable.

In a stunning announcement at the opening of the Detroit motor show, Rick Wagoner, GM's chairman and chief executive, also said ethanol was an "important interim solution" to the world's demand for oil, until battery technology improved to give electric cars the same driving range as petrol-powered cars.

GM is working on an electric car, called the Volt, which is due in showrooms in 2010, but delays in suitable battery technology have slowed the project.

Mr Wagoner cited US Department of Energy figures which show the world is consuming roughly 1000 barrels of oil every second of the day, and yet demand for oil is likely to increase by 70 per cent over the next 20 years. Some experts believe the supply of oil peaked in 2006.

The remaining oil reserves are deeper below the Earth's surface and therefore more costly to mine and refine.

"There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now," Mr Wagoner said. "As a business necessity and an obligation to society we need to develop alternative sources of propulsion."

He added: "So, are electrically driven vehicles the answer for the mid- and long-term? Yes, for sure. But … we need something else to significantly reduce our reliance on petroleum in the interim."

GM is so convinced about ethanol it has signed an agreement with a supplier that claims to have come up with a way of producing ethanol that is cheaper and more efficient than refining oil. The supplier claims it can produce ethanol from "almost any material" such as farm waste, municipal waste, discarded plastics - even old tyres.

The car industry has had a love-hate relationship with ethanol, which is most commonly derived from crops such as corn, wheat and sugar cane. At first, car makers criticised ethanol-blended fuel because most vehicles weren't compatible with it. Then car makers changed their tune and embraced ethanol-blended fuel after retuning engines to suit the new mix.

[Ishley]

I heard this on the radio this morning. . . . . hmmmm very interesting

[btm]

ballsy speach...

[btm]

quite a few good write-ups from the detroit motor show can be found here - http://www.drive.com.au/Editorial/ArticleDetail.aspx?ArticleID=47342&s_rid=smh:ClassiePuff

[oneightoo]

id buy one if

- power delivery was the same
- the range was the same
- recharging the battery was as quick as refilling the tank

ultimatley, we'll have no choice but to get electric cars tho..

[Ishley]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/times-up-for-petrol-cars-says-gm-chief/2008/01/14/1200159401944.html

Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief

The car industry has had a love-hate relationship with ethanol, which is most commonly derived from crops such as corn, wheat and sugar cane. At first, car makers criticised ethanol-blended fuel because most vehicles weren't compatible with it. Then car makers changed their tune and embraced ethanol-blended fuel after retuning engines to suit the new mix.

This should put Bundaberg on the map. And make it a boom town in years to come.

[Wraith]

Nooooooooooooo......

I'll resort to making my own petrol :D

[blueraven]

i would have one of these in an instant if they would ship them here....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster

Performance
Acceleration time: 0-60 mph (0-97 km/h) in under 4 seconds for prototypes [6]
Top speed: electronically limited at 125 mph (201 km/h)
Range: 221 miles (356 km) on the EPA combined cycle
Weight and distribution: about 2,700 lb (1,220 kg), centered in front of the rear axle
Rear wheel drive

[oneightoo]

and how long is the recharge time?

[Wraith]

Yeh, seen those, very nice but prohibitively expensive...

I'm looking forward to the new Supra ?? petrol/electric supercar from Toyota, if it looks as good as the prototype and has GT-R matching performance ?? oh yeah babe :D

[immenotu]

Only problem with electric cars is that coal is used to make most the electricity used to charge them which is no better for the environment than using petrol/diesel. The only current benefit of electric cars might be slightly better fuel economy... Until we switch to green electricity generation electric cars seem to be a bit of a waste of time.

[oneightoo]

i currently use 10% green energy at home..

im sure by the time these cars become common place, that 10% will be closer to 75%, or hopefully 100%..

it's only a matter of time, and of course, you have to start somewhere..

[daaaaavek]

and how long is the recharge time?

3.5 hours .. it's there on the wikipedia page

[xplosv57]

Nooooooooooooo......

I'll resort to making my own petrol :D

I'm right there with ya mate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll make the V8 run on anything as long as i get to keep it!!!!

But have been reading up of BMW's fuel efficiency program and stay tuned cos they have some damn cool stuff coming which i can see other manufacturers soon following!!

[Wraith]

Only problem with electric cars is that coal is used to make most the electricity used to charge them which is no better for the environment than using petrol/diesel. The only current benefit of electric cars might be slightly better fuel economy... Until we switch to green electricity generation electric cars seem to be a bit of a waste of time.

Won't be for long !!!!

Nuclear energy is making a comeback :eek:

[Wraith]

I'm right there with ya mate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll make the V8 run on anything as long as i get to keep it!!!!

But have been reading up of BMW's fuel efficiency program and stay tuned cos they have some damn cool stuff coming which i can see other manufacturers soon following!!

Would that be the hydrogen powered cars they're advertising as of late Steve :)

And no more pollution from the zorst, just good ol plain water ;)

[xplosv57]

Would that be the hydrogen powered cars they're advertising as of late Steve :)

And no more pollution from the zorst, just good ol plain water ;)

Well there's the hydrogen stuff, but theres also a large program called EfficientDynamics, which a program to not only reduce fuel consumption but to also gain power as well!!!

There is a concept X6 called the ActiveHybrid which has lower fuel consumption and reduced emissions but same, if not better performance than current models by using a specially designed transmission which switches electric motors on each wheel on and off when the power to that wheel is required!!

So the car can run solely on the electric motors when cruising, solely engine power when it needs some go, or a combination of both!!!

[Wraith]

Well there's the hydrogen stuff, but theres also a large program called EfficientDynamics, which a program to not only reduce fuel consumption but to also gain power as well!!!

There is a concept X6 called the ActiveHybrid which has lower fuel consumption and reduced emissions but same, if not better performance than current models by using a specially designed transmission which switches electric motors on each wheel on and off when the power to that wheel is required!!

So the car can run solely on the electric motors when cruising, solely engine power when it needs some go, or a combination of both!!!

Ah I see....

I've seen that before, where they plan on using individual donut shaped electric motors in each wheel hub.

That's the system Toyota are going for in their new hybrid supercar :)

[NXA-16H]

About frigging time I say. Uncle Sam's been far too slow on releasing this technology. Still is.

GM, it's time you pulled your thumb out of your arse and showed some real initiative, instead of cow-tow'ing to Big Oil, for Christ's Sake.

F**k me. :mad:

NXK-43Y

[cyclonic]

About frigging time I say. Uncle Sam's been far too slow on releasing this technology. Still is.

GM, it's time you pulled your thumb out of your arse and showed some real initiative, instead of cow-tow'ing to Big Oil, for Christ's Sake.

F**k me. :mad:

NXK-43Y

Hoorah for that!

The Brazilians have been using sugar-cane based ethanol for years and loving it, yet the US Govt have been subsiding corn growers. Corn ethanol has utterly useless compared to sugar cane based, but GM's announcement is even better because the ethanol they're targeting is even more efficient than sugar-cane ethanol.

As for me, i'm thinking of going to diesel. Hmm.. a bio-diesel hybrid running on old chip fat. :)

[Vectracious]

Top Gear grew their own petrol - and raced a car on it.... hopefully someone comes up with some sort of conversion kit....

or maybe I should just sell the Rex and Astra now and buy a couple of diesels.....

[xcgumby]

There's nothing new about peak oil.

And this is incredible hypocracy from GM. They HAD an electric car about 10-15yrs ago but canned it. Thing about electric cars is they don't need petrol. What do you think Woolies & Coles think about that? You won't need to stop & fill up & buy OTHER sh*t at the same time. You also don't need oil or filter changes and you hardly need brake pads because electric motors use regnerative brake to slow down.

We're at a stage now where the oil producing countries can not produce enough to keep the price low anymore.

Ethanol is not the answer because it takes as much or MORE energy to make ethanol than you get out of it. Nuclear power use sh*tloads of electricity to enrich uranium. And the world will run out of uranium (present technology & rate of consumption) at about the same time as the oil runs out. 30yrs.

Imagine what a peak oil world means - line up for 2 days in your car to fill up. The fill costs $500. But hey - no coal to the powerstation because miners can't get diesel for their trucks. Plastics become RARE. We start making stuff out of wood again because its cheaper.

Ships have sails again or coal & steam. Only the rich can afford to fly.

And the worst possible scenario - China and the US go to war over control of oil resources. Less likely now that the Chinese government own huge chunks of the US banking system.

The 21st century will be all about energy.

[Huhness]

There's nothing new about peak oil.

And this is incredible hypocracy from GM. They HAD an electric car about 10-15yrs ago but canned it. Thing about electric cars is they don't need petrol. What do you think Woolies & Coles think about that? You won't need to stop & fill up & buy OTHER sh*t at the same time. You also don't need oil or filter changes and you hardly need brake pads because electric motors use regnerative brake to slow down.

We're at a stage now where the oil producing countries can not produce enough to keep the price low anymore.

Ethanol is not the answer because it takes as much or MORE energy to make ethanol than you get out of it. Nuclear power use sh*tloads of electricity to enrich uranium. And the world will run out of uranium (present technology & rate of consumption) at about the same time as the oil runs out. 30yrs.

Imagine what a peak oil world means - line up for 2 days in your car to fill up. The fill costs $500. But hey - no coal to the powerstation because miners can't get diesel for their trucks. Plastics become RARE. We start making stuff out of wood again because its cheaper.

Ships have sails again or coal & steam. Only the rich can afford to fly.

And the worst possible scenario - China and the US go to war over control of oil resources. Less likely now that the Chinese government own huge chunks of the US banking system.

The 21st century will be all about energy.
Thanks now i'll just cry myself to sleep tonight! :help:

[NXA-16H]

<snip>

...And this is incredible hypocracy from GM. They HAD an electric car about 10-15yrs ago but canned it.

I remember the documentry on the matter. Very good too.
http://www.whokilledtheelectriccar.com/
Clearly, GM were paid-off by Big Oil. Simple as that.


Thing about electric cars is they don't need petrol. What do you think Woolies & Coles think about that? You won't need to stop & fill up & buy OTHER sh*t at the same time. You also don't need oil or filter changes and you hardly need brake pads because electric motors use regnerative brake to slow down.

Well as far as I can gather, the relationship between Shell and Coles, and Caltex and Woolworths, is that Coles and Woolies supply the Non-Petrol goods on Caltex and Shell's behalf. The logistics of the actuall fuel is subcontracted out to the likes of LinFox. I don't really foresee a kerfuffle if the pin's pulled on that 4c/Litre discount deal. Motorists can see through that bullshit.


We're at a stage now where the oil producing countries can not produce enough to keep the price low anymore.

Can't say I agree with that one. OPEC can extract oil as quickly as it wants. Obviously though, slower rate of supply equates to higher returns. It's up to the consumer to find cheaper means of transport. And the Government is happy to sit back and watch it happen, as long as the excise keeps rolling in.


Ethanol is not the answer because it takes as much or MORE energy to make ethanol than you get out of it. <snip.

Well that doesn't appear to bother Brazil though, does it.


Imagine what a peak oil world means - line up for 2 days in your car to fill up. The fill costs $500. But hey - no coal to the powerstation because miners can't get diesel for their trucks. Plastics become RARE. <snip>

$500/50L tank = $10.00/L Petrol ??? Can't see it happening myself.

Consider this:
Escalating fuel costs = skyrocketing inflation, a la Zimbabwe = Higher Interest Rates = mass loan defaults = general Credit Crunch = Economic Meltdown. No Government acting in its own interests would allow such a thing to happen.


Ships have sails again or coal & steam. Only the rich can afford to fly.

Actually, some shipping companies are already considering using parasails to optimise fuel economy. Coal and/or steam? Not going to happen.
Either nuclear cells or hydrogen Cells. I think the latter is most likely.

NXK-43Y

[xcgumby]

NXA-16H - da MAN.

I love the way you've actually participated. People normally just look at me like I'm crazy when I get on a peak oil rant!

Point I was trying to make - and you did spot it.... There IS a chance of a Zimbabwe scenario happening across the whole planet. Over the last 15yrs there's been a couple of fairly large financial catastrophes - the current sub-prime mortgage fiasco (who'd have thought buying into investment funds based on the idea that unemployed single mothers would be able to pay back mortgages on real estate bought in an overheated housing market?? Still...)

And of course the asian currency crisis.

In both cases, the money to bail out came from somewhere else. Its not hard to imagine that if everybody is in the same boat - where is the money coming from?

That possibility is the scariest component of peak oil.

I tell you what crystallised it for me...

Last year at our company's annual management conference (we're a medium sized private company at about $400mill pa turnover), the CEO is taking about a scenario planning exercise that our strategic group had been doing. So, he says we divided it up into 4 'sectors'. Top right is the very very best outcome - political stability, international sense of community etc. In the bottom left he says is the very very worst. He says 'what do I mean by that.... well basically the US & China go to war over oil'.

Likelihood? 25%?? Dunno. Too f*cking HIGH I say!

Oh & by the way - Brazil & ethanol. Really it depends on how highly you value the carbon capture potential of retaining the amazon rainforest.